Following developments in Yemen which saw the Southern Transitional Council (STC) seizing power across the entire south of Yemen, tensions have risen between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The STC has been financially backed and trained by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and towards the end of 2025 they took control over key regions in the South of Yemen. Specifically, the STC seized control over the eight governorates that used to make up South Yemen, presenting the possibility of South Yemen independence for the first time since 1990. This momentum was halted swiftly, as STC pushed into eastern governorates of Hadhramout and al-Mahra, which was seen as a red line for Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia claimed that its military intervention in Yemen was aimed at restoring the national government; however, this objective changed fundamentally over time. In 2017, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) was formed to provide southern Yemen with a recognised leadership. Through financial and material backing for the southern armed groups, the UAE emerged as the leading contributor of the organisation’s creation. For years, the southern separatist group grew, and sentiments of independence along with it. In 2022, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) was created with the objective of uniting forces fighting against Houthis, bridging ideological and political divides in the country.
The resulting landscape is a competition for Yemen’s resources and ports, pinning the UAE and Saudi Arabia at odds, but the UAE and the STC recently gained traction at an exponential rate. Tens of thousands of STC troops established control over key regions of southern Yemen. Recent developments saw the STC establish control in the Hadramaut and Marah governorate, and later the southern capital, Aden. The power balance seemed to tip in favour of the UAE, as Riyadh withdrew troops from the presidential palace of the southern capital. Despite originating as a counter-movement to the Houthis, the PLC was left fragmented and scattered as the STC hoisted the flags of South Yemen over government buildings across the country’s South.
This victory for the UAE and the STC did not last long however, as Saudi Arabia saw the STC push towards the borders of its Kingdom as a potential threat to national security, and as grounds for escalating military action against the STC.. The Saudi-led coalition launched air strikes on southern Yemen, after the STCs leader disappeared instead of boarding a plane which was scheduled to take him to talks in Riyadh. Ground forces then moved towards Aden, which was an STC stronghold, and ultimately forced the STC to withdraw their troops from Hadramout, the presidential palace in Aden, and military camps in al-Mahra. What appeared to be a long stride towards the independence of South Yemen and a UAE victory has come to an abrupt halt, as the STC delegation which appeared in Riyadh for talks has since announced the dissolution of the group.
The long-term consequences of this escalation remain to be seen. Several STC figures and spokespersons have made contradicting claims regarding the intentions of the movement pertaining to independence as well as the structure of the STC itself. The PLC has issued statements encouraging negotiations for peace with all battling factions in Yemen, but further escalations could be seen as southern forces have already suggested resistance against an integration led by Saudi Arabia. With regards to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the evolution of this conflict has been a regional and political gain of power for Saudi Arabia. The same could have been said for the UAE some weeks ago, which creates more uncertainty on what course of action will be taken in response. It would seem as though the southern dissolution will limit the capacity for the UAE to respond. However, it is clear that the future of Saudi-UAE relations will be underscored by tensions in the involvement of the Yemeni war.