An Uncertain Future for Food Insecurity

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The access to and availability of food is undoubtedly one of the most important human rights.The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) clearly states that signatories should take active measures to ensure that their citizens have access to food to ensure that they are free from hunger. All members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), except Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are party to the treaty.

So far, the countries of the GCC are doing well to ensure that their citizens have access to food. Though data for every GCC country is difficult to find, what data exists is positive. According to the Global Hunger Index, which assigns a score based on several nourishment and caloric factors, the countries of the GCC are doing extremely well in providing access to food for their citizens.

While the GCC is doing well now, several factors make the future of food security within the region prone to international and domestic shocks. Due to geographical conditions, arable land is relatively scarce in the region. Of the GCC countries, Bahrain has the highest percentage of arable land at 2.7%. The irony of this situation is that Bahrain is also the GCC’s smallest country.

Without enough arable land to support their population, GCC countries import a vast majority of their food. Estimates are that the GCC imports 85% of its food. This itself is not a problem in times of peace, but shocks to shipping routes or to the global food market can disrupt this flow of food from abroad. Individual countries off the GCC have taken the initiative to promote programs at home and abroad to increase food security while the GCC has implemented a regional strategy to try to address the problem.

These programs may not be enough in the face of climate change. The changes in climate brought on by fossil fuels,  of which the region is the leading producer, may be the greatest threat to food security for the GCC. A recent study has found for every degree Celsius increase to the global average temperature will decrease crop yield on average by 4.4%. This change will impact the amount of food being exported and thus hinder the availability of food for the GCC to import.

While the citizens of the GCC currently enjoy high levels of food security, growing challenges may impact the governments’ abilities to provide food security. The GCC is susceptible to changes in food export markets, trade route security, and climate change. The GCC should prioritize any and all programs to protect its food security from future shocks.